Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-149.67

Realised

$-4.80

Win rate

36 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 36

YES
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
223 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
163 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
128 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET
106 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?$1.99Jun 14, 03:14 UTC
TRADEBUYODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia$5.13Jun 7, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?$3.00May 23, 13:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?$3.26May 23, 13:34 UTC
REDEEMWill Viking FK win on 2026-05-16?$1.22May 17, 03:06 UTC
REDEEMIndian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans$2.17May 17, 03:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.05May 16, 09:11 UTC
TRADEBUYIndian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans$1.02May 16, 09:01 UTC
REDEEMWill Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?$2.86May 16, 05:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.04May 15, 14:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$1.07May 15, 11:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$1.05May 15, 11:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.79May 15, 11:29 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17?$1.38May 15, 09:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.03May 15, 09:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.04May 15, 08:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.00May 15, 08:54 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.14May 15, 08:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$1.01May 15, 08:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET$8.49May 15, 06:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

3% win rate over 36 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

36 closed markets, 3% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $6.07
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 15, 03:23 UTC
Last active: Jun 14, 03:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 36 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:46:37 UTC·src:Polymarket Data