Rough-Forebear
0xb731d82479119b6b3009ec2c0309ce5e9dfd372e
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-275.28
Realised
$14.46
Win rate
80%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- OVER
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5
987 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
928 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
323 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
186 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
168 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.98
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
166 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.93
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
150 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
150 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
150 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$1.05Jul 25, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$1.07Jul 25, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.09Jul 25, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$1.05Jul 25, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$2.50Jul 25, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.44Jul 25, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.39Jul 25, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.38Jul 25, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.04Jul 25, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.06Jul 25, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.22Jul 25, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.03Jul 25, 06:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 02:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 17:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.