Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$-570.48

Win rate

120 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
347 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-3.81
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
148 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-3.81
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
135 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-4.79
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
124 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-7.27
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
116 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-6.11
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
104 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-2.09
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
83 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-3.72
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
78 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.07
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
78 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026
$0.00
$-6.32
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
72 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.87

Recent activity

TRADEBUYSpread: Spurs (-2.5)$2.44Jun 4, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5$3.58Jun 4, 00:54 UTC
REDEEMPerugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$5.00Jun 4, 00:53 UTC
TRADEBUYPerugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar$4.75Jun 3, 22:41 UTC
REDEEMSpread: IK Start (-2.5)$5.00Jun 3, 22:40 UTC
TRADEBUYPerugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle$2.14Jun 2, 08:17 UTC
TRADEBUYPerugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle$3.10Jun 2, 08:16 UTC
REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$8.00Jun 2, 04:43 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)$4.17Jun 2, 01:52 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$3.66Jun 2, 01:45 UTC
REDEEMRoland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi$5.00Jun 2, 01:43 UTC
TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi$2.24Jun 1, 22:26 UTC
REDEEMWill Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?$5.00Jun 1, 22:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Slovakia win on 2026-06-01?$4.07Jun 1, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYRoland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya$2.02Jun 1, 11:24 UTC
REDEEMWill Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31?$5.00Jun 1, 11:22 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-31?$4.56Jun 1, 01:16 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC end in a draw?$2.67Jun 1, 01:15 UTC
REDEEMKosice: Martin Krumich vs Kilian Feldbausch$6.00Jun 1, 01:15 UTC
TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5$2.69May 31, 23:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 120 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

120 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity38 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 33
Avg trade size: $3.43
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 25, 03:54 UTC
Last active: Jun 4, 00:54 UTC
Win rate sample: 120 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 19:32:02 UTC·src:Polymarket Data