Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.5K

Realised

$-108.71

Win rate

84 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 84

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
436 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026
$0.00
$-111.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
375 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-150.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
331 shares @ 17.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-57.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
316 shares @ 30.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-95.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
311 shares @ 33.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026
$0.00
$-103.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
283 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-34.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
275 shares @ 19.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-53.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
243 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-68.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
234 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
227 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-102.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$5.24Aug 6, 17:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET$107.83Aug 5, 01:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$116.79Aug 5, 01:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$58.78Aug 5, 01:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$29.27Aug 5, 00:46 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 20, 01:50 UTC
REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$332.24Jul 20, 01:50 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$203.98Jul 19, 20:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.19Jul 14, 21:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$3.45Jul 14, 21:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Jul 14, 21:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$15.63Jul 14, 21:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.05Jul 14, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.24Jul 14, 21:36 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$2.99Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$41.88Jun 13, 16:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$40.61Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET$21.04Jun 13, 16:37 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 84 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

84 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry70 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $59.05
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 11, 01:01 UTC
Last active: Aug 6, 17:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 84 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:39:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data