Wallet digest

Activity score

55/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$102.24

Total PnL

$-1.1K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
160 shares @ 13.2¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$23.13
$2.04
NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
22 shares @ 12.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$21.60
$18.84
NO
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
20 shares @ 60.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$20.00
$7.85
NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
34 shares @ 47.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$19.15
$3.21
NO
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
10 shares @ 64.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026
$10.00
$3.55
NO
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?
8 shares @ 83.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$8.35
$1.38
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
2803 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-2.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET
2626 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026
$0.00
$-2.63
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
1401 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1.40
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
636 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.61

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:20 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity30 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 3, 00:12 UTC
Last active: Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:55:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data