0xb7a50f080f2e069e2def1cde2b7e119448d05824
0xb7a50f080f2e069e2def1cde2b7e119448d05824
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$70.34
Total PnL
$-0.87
Realised
$0.09
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
15 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.69
$-0.01
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20?
14 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$14.18
$0.01
- NO
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?
8 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$8.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$5.26
$-0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21?
5 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$4.56
$0.00
- NO
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
3 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$3.35
$-0.02
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
4 shares @ 82.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.32
$0.31
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June?
3 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$3.29
$0.01
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
3 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.12
$0.12
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
2 shares @ 91.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.08
$0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 21?$4.56Jun 20, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$14.71Jun 20, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$19.29Jun 20, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20?$14.17Jun 19, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19?$14.16Jun 19, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 21?$1.00Jun 19, 09:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on June 18?$1.00Jun 18, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19?$14.15Jun 18, 19:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 18?$1.00Jun 18, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?$7.80Jun 18, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?$1.10Jun 18, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17?$1.24Jun 17, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17?$1.00Jun 17, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17?$2.00Jun 17, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18?$7.75Jun 17, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17?$7.76Jun 17, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?$1.40Jun 17, 15:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?$1.41Jun 17, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology (MU) beat quarterly earnings?$1.48Jun 17, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings?$1.40Jun 17, 08:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $4.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 16:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 20, 08:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.