Favorable-Basis
0xb7b6c6124cafb24cb9106a5973f01a01b2b0e232
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$4.11
Total PnL
$-24.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1 shares @ 94.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?
1 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-2.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
3000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
3000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 1 day or more?$1.00Jan 31, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.00Jan 19, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMNicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?$1.01Jan 16, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?$1.00Jan 16, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025?$1.01Jan 4, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYNicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026?$1.00Jan 4, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$1.07Dec 26, 05:49 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$5.07Dec 26, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Dec 26, 05:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.03Dec 10, 06:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?$1.05Dec 10, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?$1.00Dec 10, 06:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$1.02Dec 3, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?$1.03Dec 3, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$2.09Dec 3, 06:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Dec 3, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.00Nov 28, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?$1.00Nov 27, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$1.00Nov 26, 05:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 25?$1.01Nov 26, 05:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 30, 03:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 31, 02:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".