Limping-Mushroom
0xb7d321f3848e944f98b9b36160547a021ac21676
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$69.02
Total PnL
$-140.66
Realised
$33.32
Win rate
89%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
30 shares @ 78.8¢·now 69.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$20.68
$-2.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
20 shares @ 50.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$20.00
$9.90
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
110 shares @ 20.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.25
$-14.09
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 20.8¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.90
$-5.60
- YES
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 50.7¢·now 23.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.75
$-3.31
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 15.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.60
$-3.60
- YES
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 18.1¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.25
$-5.88
- YES
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 35.4¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.17
$-3.98
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.85
$-3.15
- YES
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 16.3¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.56
$-3.08
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLGRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?$6.90Jul 30, 14:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 08:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.