Limping-Mushroom
0xb7d321f3848e944f98b9b36160547a021ac21676
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$105.76
Total PnL
$-99.94
Realised
$20.99
Win rate
93%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
20 shares @ 84.4¢·now 77.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$15.57
$-1.31
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
160 shares @ 20.3¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.20
$-17.30
- YES
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 18.7¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.50
$-0.70
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 30.7¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.05
$0.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$10.00
$5.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 26?
20 shares @ 33.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$9.50
$2.90
- YES
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026?
60 shares @ 13.8¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.50
$-0.80
- NO
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$6.70
$-1.90
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26?
15 shares @ 62.5¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$5.85
$-3.52
- YES
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 20.5¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.63
$0.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26?$2.00Jun 26, 12:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?$2.00Jun 26, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,250 by December 31, 2026?$3.20Jun 26, 10:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 26?$2.60Jun 26, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26?$5.50Jun 26, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 26?$4.50Jun 26, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 26?$7.00Jun 26, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$4.90Jun 26, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.96Jun 26, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$3.94Jun 26, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 26?$3.70Jun 26, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?$2.70Jun 26, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 26?$2.60Jun 26, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on June 26?$4.00Jun 26, 06:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?$3.60Jun 26, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25?$0.00Jun 26, 05:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 25?$0.00Jun 26, 05:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 25?$5.50Jun 26, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on June 25?$30.00Jun 26, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?$1.80Jun 26, 02:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
93% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 04:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 12:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.