Smoggy-Bribery
0xb7ef580a13f0463561170074bece5fb7bbd3812c
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$35.5K
Total PnL
$2.1K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
69%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
20000 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$19.9K
$183.70
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
5863 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.8K
$12.74
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?
2502 shares @ 97.1¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.4K
$9.09
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?
2297 shares @ 88.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.1K
$73.15
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
1500 shares @ 94.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.5K
$68.65
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June?
1249 shares @ 96.7¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.2K
$-3.59
- NO
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?
740 shares @ 92.0¢·now 98.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$725.21
$44.71
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June?
432 shares @ 91.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$410.80
$15.42
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?
439 shares @ 81.2¢·now 89.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$391.04
$34.84
- NO
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?
299 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$296.55
$7.69
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$4.98Jun 22, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$0.84Jun 22, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$2.6KJun 22, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$12.22Jun 22, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June?$733.78Jun 22, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June?$1.4KJun 22, 01:02 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.03Jun 22, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 22, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$53.71Jun 22, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$12.74Jun 21, 23:57 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$2.81Jun 21, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?$30.53Jun 21, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$6.42Jun 21, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$10.71Jun 21, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?$0.64Jun 21, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$992.07Jun 21, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?$2.2KJun 21, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$69.23Jun 21, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$146.08Jun 21, 19:35 UTC
- MERGEWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$9.52Jun 21, 19:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
69% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $206.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 17:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 02:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.