Thoughtful-Inability
0xb8406aa195b52f6ad6f06d78652f5ec004104812
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$1.43
Total PnL
$-119.06
Realised
$39.20
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on January 16?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will the US strike Colombia next?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 16?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the US strike Somalia next?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the US strike Iraq next?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 16?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
211 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-20.34
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
153 shares @ 56.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-86.50
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 January 12-18?
116 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 17?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$87.91Jan 16, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$41.01Jan 16, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$41.49Jan 16, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET$50.00Jan 16, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$10.00Jan 16, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$5.00Jan 16, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$5.00Jan 16, 05:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18?$1.67Jan 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$35.44Jan 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16?$22.42Jan 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16?$5.76Jan 16, 05:54 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$10.50Jan 16, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$0.00Jan 16, 05:46 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$0.00Jan 16, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$10.00Jan 16, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$9.64Jan 16, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$8.00Jan 16, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET$21.00Jan 16, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET$20.00Jan 16, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16?$22.64Jan 16, 05:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 23:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 06:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".