Oily-Normalisation
0xb84c228bbc4a8aacfbcc442a65e88d3b99b6f36f
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
197
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-150.11
Realised
$43.49
Win rate
68%
110 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 197- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 5?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11?
834 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 3?
815 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 21?
690 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 6?
599 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 21?
588 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 5?
550 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 20?
510 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 21?
501 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 21?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?$0.24Jun 22, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 22?$0.77Jun 22, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.49Jun 22, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.09Jun 22, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.17Jun 22, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.03Jun 22, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.03Jun 22, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.03Jun 22, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.03Jun 22, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.04Jun 22, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.02Jun 22, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.02Jun 22, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.01Jun 22, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.01Jun 22, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 22?$0.01Jun 22, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 22?$1.01Jun 22, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 22?$0.01Jun 22, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 22?$0.83Jun 22, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 22?$0.05Jun 22, 04:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 22?$0.60Jun 22, 04:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
68% win rate over 110 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 21/100.
110 closed markets, 68% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 22:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 22, 12:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 110 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.