0xb85790388ae047df3a8b6e44b39ff9045f329648
0xb85790388ae047df3a8b6e44b39ff9045f329648
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$150.24
Total PnL
$56.07
Realised
$3.76
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
104 shares @ 58.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$94.64
$34.30
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
45 shares @ 43.7¢·now 87.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$38.97
$19.41
- NO
Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
10 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$9.88
$0.10
- YES
Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
85 shares @ 1.2¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$2.93
$1.91
- YES
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
86 shares @ 3.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$2.63
$-0.07
- YES
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
18 shares @ 9.9¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.55
$-1.26
- YES
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
11 shares @ 11.9¢·now 3.8¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.43
$-0.92
- YES
Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
10 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.13
$-0.07
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?
25 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.09
$-1.09
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$8.47Jul 11, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$1.68Jul 11, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$16.35Jul 11, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$9.79Jul 11, 12:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$2.58Jul 11, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$2.88Jul 11, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$2.83Jul 11, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$4.60Jul 11, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$18.16Jul 11, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$4.67Jul 10, 23:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$1.24Jul 10, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$1.07Jul 10, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$3.34Jul 10, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$3.00Jul 10, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$1.25Jul 10, 04:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$0.20Jul 9, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$25.98Jul 9, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$0.96Jul 9, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$2.00Jul 8, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$11.49Jul 7, 21:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $6.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 19:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.