Traumatic-Danger
0xb85e1858dc9519962c079e309d5c23e1013d743f
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-400.42
Realised
$-14.02
Win rate
0%
46 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
2667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video?
2316 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.83
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1783 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-12.48
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17?
1238 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Solana dip to $90 in January?
1152 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-29.76
- NO
Will Solana dip to $110 in January?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?
986 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 December 15-21?
880 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025$0.00
$-28.04
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?
829 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Doug Jones win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?$1.04May 17, 13:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on May 21?$1.07May 17, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on May 18?$1.05May 17, 13:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 18?$1.05May 17, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?$4.41May 17, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on May 19?$4.20May 17, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?$4.65May 17, 13:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00May 17, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video?$5.02May 16, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?$5.20May 16, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Tesla" or "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video?$4.16May 16, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$5.33May 16, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET$5.33May 16, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?$4.28May 16, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17?$5.35May 16, 21:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.92May 16, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.07May 16, 21:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$12.82May 16, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$10.29May 16, 21:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$4.08May 16, 21:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 46 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
46 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 15:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 13:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 46 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.