Dense-Larva
0xb86c5300cda79b0e88c5f42e4c6a0b836748b0f7
Wallet digest
Activity score
29/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
42
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-8.64
Win rate
0%
41 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 42- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
575 shares @ 85.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-492.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
495 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
414 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
40 shares @ 89.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-35.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET
30 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-25.80
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
30 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
30 shares @ 96.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-28.80
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
30 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-29.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
30 shares @ 99.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-29.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
30 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-29.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.13Jun 18, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 23:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$5.16Jun 18, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$4.96Jun 18, 23:14 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 21:44 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 21:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 18:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$5.05Jun 18, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$4.96Jun 18, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$5.07Jun 18, 17:49 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$5.00Jun 18, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$4.95Jun 18, 17:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 41 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
41 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $4.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 07:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 23:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 41 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.