Tight-Glue
0xb86cb400f6c0b829963e7c4dc06da32524d55e9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-375.90
Realised
$-7.32
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 8?
4821 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.04
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 3?
1880 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-22.31
- UP
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
1712 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-17.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?
1540 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.80
- DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
1501 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-15.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?
1184 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8?
1092 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 8?
1074 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 8?
1050 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on July 16?$1.61Jul 16, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?$2.09Jul 16, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?$1.96Jul 16, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?$1.73Jul 16, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 16?$1.48Jul 16, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 15?$4.51Jul 15, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.46Jul 15, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?$0.02Jul 15, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?$0.38Jul 15, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 15?$4.60Jul 15, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.12Jul 15, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.20Jul 15, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.16Jul 15, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.07Jul 15, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.20Jul 15, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$0.12Jul 15, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?$0.80Jul 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?$1.00Jul 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or higher on July 15?$2.50Jul 15, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?$3.41Jul 15, 10:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 20:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 06:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.