Dim-Green
0xb8814be0116b4b12c3c6dc92aa6e331563ef37a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
156
Open notional
$12.01
Total PnL
$276.74
Realised
$334.51
Win rate
99%
84 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 156- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 13?
5 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$5.00
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April 13?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$5.00
$0.25
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2 shares @ 1.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.01
$1.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 12?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 11?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 12?$0.39Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on April 12?$3.00Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 12?$5.00Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 12?$5.00Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?$5.00Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on April 12?$5.00Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 11?$1.00Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 12?$3.04Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 12?$3.49Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 11?$5.00Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 13?$5.00Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 12?$5.00Apr 13, 07:38 UTC
- CONVERSIONWorld Cup Winner $0.00Apr 13, 06:00 UTC
- SPLITWill Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Apr 13, 05:59 UTC
- CONVERSIONWorld Cup Winner $0.00Apr 13, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.00Apr 13, 05:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 44°F or higher on April 12?$0.16Apr 13, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 12?$0.24Apr 13, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 12?$0.84Apr 13, 04:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 12?$0.94Apr 13, 04:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
99% win rate over 84 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
84 closed markets, 99% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 13, 04:52 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 13, 10:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 84 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.