0xb8ed1e03f1822fda61c3d2bf686f16a88e95156f
0xb8ed1e03f1822fda61c3d2bf686f16a88e95156f
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-825.89
Realised
$-308.37
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 5?
230 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-75.90
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?
115 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-63.25
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 29?
105 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 27?
105 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15?
105 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?
105 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 30?
105 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-77.70
- DOWN
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15?
105 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 29?
105 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?
105 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.36Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$10.84Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?$2.93Jul 17, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or below on July 17?$4.09Jul 17, 09:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?$0.59Jul 17, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?$1.80Jul 17, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 17?$1.99Jul 17, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 19?$3.19Jul 17, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 19?$3.30Jul 17, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 19?$2.94Jul 17, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 19?$3.05Jul 17, 05:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?$24.75Jul 17, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?$26.43Jul 17, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?$55.51Jul 17, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?$2.99Jul 17, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?$5.76Jul 17, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 18?$72.45Jul 17, 05:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 19?$0.45Jul 17, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 19?$0.48Jul 17, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 18?$2.59Jul 17, 04:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $17.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 01:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.