Smug-Estimate
0xb9033d838351469cd684a22c095ce4da3077ea1b
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-307.36
Realised
$10.33
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
14000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- PATRIOTS
Seahawks vs. Patriots
5194 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
1333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
273 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?
59 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
39 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- BENGALS
Bengals vs. Bills
31 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-14.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$7.29May 24, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET$10.38May 24, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET$3.21May 24, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET$10.67May 24, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$10.65May 24, 05:42 UTC
- REDEEMKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$42.55May 24, 05:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Canada win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$2.11Mar 1, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?$2.70Mar 1, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$51.72Mar 1, 01:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$144.93Mar 1, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?$100.00Feb 19, 13:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$15.00Feb 19, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$2.26Feb 19, 13:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$1.98Feb 16, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$2.00Feb 16, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$1.00Feb 16, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$0.00Feb 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.53Feb 16, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.22Feb 16, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.34Feb 16, 17:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $11.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 6, 03:33 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".