Heavy-Merchant
0xb913043a9e51f1ede4636acbe787767d2a64b77e
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$220.92
Total PnL
$-65.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Jerome Powell say "recession" during the May meeting?
62 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$62.34
$14.34
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$55.56
$50.56
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$50.00
$30.00
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?
36 shares @ 55.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$36.36
$16.36
- YES
Will Raphinha be the top Champions League scorer?
17 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$16.67
$11.67
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
769 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?
269 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?
147 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Solana all time high before 2026?
136 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting?
86 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?$0.00May 6, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMAnother S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin before May?$0.00May 6, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMCopa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona$0.00May 6, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$85.71May 6, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona$100.00Apr 26, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona$100.00Apr 26, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYCopa del Rey Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona$100.00Apr 26, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMChampions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid$0.00Apr 18, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester United win on 2025-04-13?$0.00Apr 18, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMChampions League Quarterfinals: Bayern vs. Inter Milan$8.33Apr 18, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Chelsea vs. Ipswich end in a draw?$133.33Apr 18, 02:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win on 2025-04-12?$0.00Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Madrid win on 2025-04-08?$0.00Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Manchester City win on 2025-04-12?$156.25Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Inter win on 2025-04-08?$166.67Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-09?$195.77Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barcelona win on 2025-04-09?$264.93Apr 13, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea vs. Ipswich end in a draw?$20.00Apr 12, 09:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Inter win on 2025-04-08?$40.00Apr 8, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bayern Munich win on 2025-04-08?$38.43Apr 8, 18:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $74.37
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 2, 17:32 UTC
- Last active
- May 6, 16:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".