Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-27.3K

Realised

$-602.65

Win rate

20%

5 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
5120 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
2274 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1.0K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
1486 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-549.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
1367 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-260.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET
1266 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-620.33
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
1222 shares @ 45.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-551.89
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
1190 shares @ 55.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-657.35
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
1115 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-300.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
1101 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-39.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
990 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$2.67Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.99Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.63Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.74Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.27Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.81Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.68Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.99Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.04Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.49Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.55Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.82Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.30Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.92Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.93Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$18.48Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$25.21Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$25.19Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$24.41Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$23.36Jun 14, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

31/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

20% win rate over 5 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity56 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence17 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry89 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk52 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 12
Avg trade size: $30.89
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 28, 15:24 UTC
Last active: Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 5 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:23:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data