Drab-Upward
0xb9cfb65e4ed4a953a72a6ea23d834a41daba75d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-8.1K
Realised
$-51.41
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
8675 shares @ 16.9¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$334.00
$-1.1K
- YES
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45001 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$247.50
$-1.1K
- YES
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45001 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.00
$-267.26
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45001 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.00
$-1.9K
- YES
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45000 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.00
$-1.3K
- YES
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45000 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$225.00
$-452.16
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
2409 shares @ 17.2¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$108.43
$-305.65
- YES
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?
1459 shares @ 23.3¢·now 5.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.81
$-261.62
- YES
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45001 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.50
$-297.77
- YES
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
45000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.50
$-259.38
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?$6.09May 23, 18:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?$6.64May 23, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLNew pandemic in 2026?$76.92May 23, 18:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?$3.77Apr 17, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?$20.22Apr 15, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$884.46Apr 15, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?$130.45Apr 15, 14:42 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Apr 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?$1.09Apr 14, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?$261.15Apr 14, 17:21 UTC
- REWARD$1.49Apr 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$27.72Apr 13, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$80.91Apr 13, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$5.14Apr 13, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$8.82Apr 13, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$3.07Apr 13, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$1.89Apr 13, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$4.87Apr 13, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$5.31Apr 13, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$40.45Apr 13, 18:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $135.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 19:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 18:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.