0xb9d10e8521129c7aaabc984de46cd2ff59a77380
0xb9d10e8521129c7aaabc984de46cd2ff59a77380
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$5.20
Total PnL
$-11.70
Realised
$-3.07
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
5 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$5.00
$0.01
- YES
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
39 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.14
$-1.36
- YES
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
17 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.06
$-0.61
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
239 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
103 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + CDA + D66?
50 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?
26 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.21
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 110-119 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?
25 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.09Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$0.98Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the first round?$1.32Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Avanza País – Partido de Integración Social (AvP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?$1.42Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António Filipe qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.49Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Joana Amaral Dias win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.50Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$1.50Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the first round?$1.24Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)?$1.80Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$2.13Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the first round?$1.67Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$2.66Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$3.83Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$3.78Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$4.19Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?$4.38Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$4.37Jan 6, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Somos Perú (SP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?$4.04Jan 6, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$4.46Jan 6, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Podemos Perú (PP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?$4.08Jan 6, 05:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 5, 11:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 6, 05:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.