Complete-Macadamia
0xba2c4dbdc7f054446442d68c8ac673401528b5d1
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$403.41
Total PnL
$-220.93
Realised
$-33.91
Win rate
27%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- YES
Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
222 shares @ 30.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$222.49
$154.44
- NO
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$26.32
$21.32
- YES
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?
17 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$16.67
$13.67
- YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
268 shares @ 15.0¢·now 4.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.80
$-28.44
- NO
Will Pure Storage (PSTG) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?
12 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$11.68
$2.54
- YES
US government shutdown Saturday?
12 shares @ 22.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$11.56
$8.97
- YES
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.68
$6.68
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
8 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$8.12
$5.44
- YES
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
7 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$6.58
$1.58
- YES
Will Trump say "Trump Derangement Syndrome" in January?
6 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$6.41
$1.41
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Unlocked: A Jail Experiment: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)$1.53Jan 16, 12:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-01-10?$1.52Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claire Danes (The Beast in Me) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?$1.62Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?$1.88Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?$2.52Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMOver $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?$3.76Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMOver $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?$4.00Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?$4.11Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?$7.24Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMHawks vs. Nuggets$13.36Jan 12, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?$1.50Jan 10, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLSyracuse Orange vs. Pittsburgh Panthers$1.26Jan 10, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sentimental Value be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.50Jan 10, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$1.93Jan 10, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYOregon vs. Indiana: O/U 49.5$1.50Jan 9, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.50Jan 9, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brentford FC win on 2026-01-10?$1.50Jan 9, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?$1.53Jan 9, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wigan Athletic FC win on 2026-01-10?$1.38Jan 9, 21:23 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $15M committed to the Ranger public sale?$0.39Jan 9, 21:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 20:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 12:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.