Monthly-Chauvinist
0xba32b44c37cc9cd8b90292f7e50f5dcae96edeaa
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-40.3K
Realised
$-4.0K
Win rate
29%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
500000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?
500000 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-4.3K
- YES
Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?
399414 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-3.8K
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
200000 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-4.8K
- YES
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?
101000 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Winsome Earle-Sears win the Virginia Governor Election in 2025
42800 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-810.38
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 22 at 4PM ET?
20908 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-472.35
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $114K on August 23 at 4PM ET?
20040 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2025$0.00
$-523.91
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112K and $113K on August 23 at 4PM ET?
17476 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2025$0.00
$-426.62
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $121K on August 16 at 5PM ET?
10895 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-53.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Speech to the Nation?$4.10Jul 16, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Speech to the Nation?$4.00Jul 16, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Speech to the Nation?$59.33Jul 16, 23:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET$26.61Jul 16, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$26.56Jul 16, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET$26.41Jul 16, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$4.21Jul 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.34Jul 16, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$5.33Jul 16, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.35Jul 16, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.33Jul 16, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$26.54Jul 15, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$5.32Jul 15, 20:54 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$3.37Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?$48.77Jul 1, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$79.90Jul 1, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?$102.25Jul 1, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana win on 2026-07-03?$102.61Jul 1, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?$17.46Jun 25, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?$20.56Jun 25, 01:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $76.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 23:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 23:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.