Austere-Pin
0xba367c518cadfecd280fb5948453e4724a9189a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$40.07
Total PnL
$-671.26
Realised
$-38.93
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 14?
134 shares @ 0.7¢·now 4.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.91
$4.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on July 14?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$3.83
$2.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 15?
137 shares @ 0.7¢·now 1.2¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.65
$0.65
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 14?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.61
$0.61
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 14?
172 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 15?
157 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 104-105°F on July 15?
118 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 14?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.94
$-0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 15?
153 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.92
$-0.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or below on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 14, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 14, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C or below on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 15?$1.05Jul 14, 10:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 07:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 11:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.