Wallet profile

Sugary-Patron

0xba5a661d54629836b50772f47be939e25ad7344c

activity 40/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

39

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-43.0K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 39

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.64Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.32Jul 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.30Jul 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.34Jul 23, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.19Jul 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.05Jul 20, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.42Jul 19, 01:04 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.91Jul 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$12.81Jul 16, 00:48 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$18.00Jul 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.86Jul 14, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.81Jul 13, 01:02 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.00Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.91Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.23Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$62.87Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$15.37Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.56Jul 8, 00:55 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$31.11Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$105.10Jul 6, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
review

2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry82 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk70 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
2
Avg trade size
$5.3K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 20, 00:00 UTC
Last active
Jul 28, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on PolymarketView on Polygonscan
updated 14:51:16 UTC·src:Polymarket Data