Modest-Emission
0xba64abd1dd58af2cb8ffe876701461dae10165ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-72.10
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 23?
1106 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 25?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on January 31?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 23?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 16?
340 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 24?$1.05Feb 23, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 23?$0.69Feb 23, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 23?$0.31Feb 23, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 23?$3.00Feb 23, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 16?$1.01Feb 15, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 16?$0.00Feb 15, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 16?$0.01Feb 15, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 15?$1.00Feb 15, 10:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?$4.00Feb 7, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February?$4.50Feb 5, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$10.00Feb 5, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February?$5.00Feb 5, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$2.50Feb 3, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$2.70Feb 3, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$1.00Feb 3, 12:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$1.00Feb 3, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February?$3.00Feb 2, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$1.00Feb 2, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?$5.00Feb 2, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Solana be above $100 on February 2?$3.45Feb 2, 03:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 20:18 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 23, 20:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.