Old-Polliwog
0xba65571b6bdc28dc5334c4a4e963a1e8c94d37cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$16.64
Total PnL
$-31.36
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Japan prime minister Ishiba out in 2025?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.56
$4.56
- YES
US government shutdown in 2025?
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$5.56
$3.56
- NO
China x India military clash by June 30?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.11
$0.11
- NO
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$1.75
$0.75
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$1.67
$0.67
- YES
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025?
165 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?
133 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025?
91 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
17 shares @ 42.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?$1.00May 2, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$1.00May 2, 21:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump end USAID in first 100 days?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMTrump severs ties with Ukraine before May?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMTrump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$0.00May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$1.35May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?$1.75May 2, 21:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? $0.00Apr 21, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump reduce majority of tariffs before July?$1.00Apr 8, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?$1.00Apr 8, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?$4.00Apr 8, 09:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28?$0.00Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 28?$0.00Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Mar 28?$0.00Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April?$0.00Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMFeds raid Jay-Z before April?$0.00Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast buy TikTok before April?$1.17Apr 8, 09:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $3.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 05:42 UTC
- Last active
- May 2, 21:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.