Wallet digest

Activity score

15/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

170

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4K

Realised

$-613.70

Win rate

116 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 170

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
353 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET
249 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-9.67
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
238 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-16.23
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
168 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-4.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
138 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
136 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
127 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-10.74
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
125 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-11.40
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
123 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-6.97
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
122 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026
$0.00
$-19.56

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$1.19Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$1.85Jun 22, 13:28 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$2.34Jun 22, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$2.44Jun 22, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET$16.38Jun 22, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$33.75Jun 22, 13:27 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$1.10Jun 22, 13:06 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET$1.19Jun 22, 13:06 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.23Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.28Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.33Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.35Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.37Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.38Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$1.41Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$1.43Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$2.50Jun 22, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$4.00Jun 22, 13:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$11.67Jun 22, 13:04 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$1.59Jun 22, 12:56 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 116 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

pass

116 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 12:42 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 116 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:42:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data