Orderly-Frustration
0xba97796921e4c6ae527743b730dc9c2fb469e8d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.7K
Realised
$-37.30
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET
1487 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-520.67
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET
1024 shares @ 36.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-377.06
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
806 shares @ 17.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-141.60
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
724 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-42.84
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
650 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-71.30
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?
625 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-102.08
- KK CRVENA ZVEZDA
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. KK Crvena Zvezda
584 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-57.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
543 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$0.00
$-48.88
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
484 shares @ 48.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-234.79
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
434 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-92.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$4.22Jul 10, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.17Jul 10, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Belgium?$24.56Jul 10, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? AND Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?$0.68Jul 8, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?$12.32Jun 15, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$4.21Jun 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$1.56Jun 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$15.86May 31, 23:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET$15.78May 31, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$37.59May 31, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET$19.12May 31, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.34May 31, 23:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.28May 31, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.30May 31, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET$5.27May 31, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$1.07May 21, 13:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$5.31May 21, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Croatia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$0.06May 16, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$0.74May 16, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$52.35May 16, 21:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $8.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 21:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.