Only-Conversation
0xbaa66f4dc55f8060cda493f1ec91c901c57c790b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$38.30
Total PnL
$-14.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
11 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.4¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$10.72
$0.72
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2AM ET
10 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$9.80
$4.80
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.69
$3.69
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.67
$-4.33
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
43 shares @ 4.7¢·now 5.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.31
$0.31
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?
27 shares @ 37.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
6 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2AM ET
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.