Fond-Divalent
0xbaaa39b12e7de23d258fc6ca5f92bea2c1d37e9d
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-303.27
Win rate
52%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
600 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- NO
Will Japan record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Czech Republic record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
399 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-251.47
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
300 shares @ 75.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-227.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
280 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-75.15
- NO
Will Slovenia record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
105 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-11.08
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
100 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026$0.00
$-7.41
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
100 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-14.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 20-39 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$5.20Apr 3, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?$5.72Apr 3, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$8.30Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$24.90Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$9.96Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$1.47Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$17.62Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$20.75Apr 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$1.03Apr 3, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?$7.00Apr 2, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$0.07Apr 2, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$0.90Apr 2, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$3.50Apr 2, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.00Apr 2, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.50Apr 2, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.32Apr 2, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.23Apr 2, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.09Apr 2, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.50Apr 2, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$0.05Apr 2, 20:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
31 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $10.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 26, 22:58 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 3, 09:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.