Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

116

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.5K

Realised

$-1.0K

Win rate

112 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 116

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
89 shares @ 33.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
87 shares @ 34.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
72 shares @ 33.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026
$0.00
$-24.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
69 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
67 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
61 shares @ 49.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
60 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
60 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026
$0.00
$-26.30
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
52 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$20.77May 29, 16:15 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$18.52May 26, 15:06 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$40.20May 26, 15:06 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$40.82May 26, 15:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$10.32May 23, 14:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$20.75May 20, 17:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$20.70May 12, 17:42 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$10.38May 12, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$20.71May 12, 09:41 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$10.46May 12, 08:46 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$20.82May 11, 16:26 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$39.56May 11, 16:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$42.55May 11, 16:26 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$43.48May 11, 16:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - May 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$14.23May 10, 23:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$20.84May 10, 22:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$20.76May 10, 22:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET$20.74May 10, 22:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET$20.69May 10, 22:25 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$20.70May 8, 21:40 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 112 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

112 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $18.51
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 5, 13:48 UTC
Last active: May 29, 16:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 112 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:33:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data