0xbad5d9063291681ed3420179ccd138cfaa6acba5
0xbad5d9063291681ed3420179ccd138cfaa6acba5
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
96
Open notional
$95.57
Total PnL
$-310.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?
15 shares @ 19.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$13.89
$11.04
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
19 shares @ 38.2¢·now 59.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.10
$3.92
- YES
Will Yousef Rabhi be the Democratic nominee for the Ann Arbor Mayoral Election?
10 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$10.00
$5.70
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
8 shares @ 55.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.08
$2.47
- NO
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 550m and 570m by August 31?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$7.03
$1.65
- NO
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 6, 2026?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$6.33
$0.66
- NO
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
16 shares @ 52.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.64
$-2.74
- NO
Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$4.82
$2.73
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?
5 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$4.00
$0.50
- NO
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
9 shares @ 63.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$3.82
$-1.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?$3.15Aug 9, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in August?$2.80Aug 8, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?$3.50Aug 8, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of August 2026?$2.63Aug 8, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$3.59Aug 8, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$7.31Aug 8, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping by August 9, 2026?$2.85Aug 8, 05:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?$15.70Aug 7, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?$2.84Aug 7, 22:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?$8.94Aug 7, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMTrump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?$10.72Aug 7, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?$2.09Aug 7, 07:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$3.21Aug 6, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?$3.46Aug 6, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYAllstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?$1.54Aug 5, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYAllstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?$2.35Aug 5, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$4.39Aug 5, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?$4.53Aug 5, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of August 8?$11.09Aug 4, 03:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 350m?$10.21Aug 4, 03:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $3.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 30, 01:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 00:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.