Careless-Presume
0xbadf252fc2dad6e0cfbc71feb9d5b48ae54a120d
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
128
Open notional
$49.45
Total PnL
$-10.9K
Realised
$-4.0K
Win rate
21%
68 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 128- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 14?
25 shares @ 9.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$24.74
$22.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$13.00
$10.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$7.34
$5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$3.99
$1.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.27
$-2.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.04
$-2.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.01
$-2.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on July 15?
26 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.01
$-2.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C or below on July 14?
25 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.01
$-2.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 37°C or higher on July 14?
25 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.01
$-12.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 14?$0.11Jul 14, 06:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 14?$0.23Jul 14, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 14?$1.49Jul 14, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 15?$0.85Jul 13, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 15?$0.18Jul 13, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 15?$0.39Jul 13, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 37°C or higher on July 15?$0.08Jul 13, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 14?$0.05Jul 13, 17:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on July 14?$0.05Jul 13, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 15?$1.00Jul 13, 17:31 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Singapore on July 15?$25.75Jul 13, 16:04 UTC
- SPLITWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 37°C or higher on July 15?$25.75Jul 13, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 13?$28.72Jul 13, 08:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 13?$0.06Jul 13, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 13?$1.08Jul 13, 05:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 13?$0.25Jul 13, 05:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 13?$0.75Jul 13, 03:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 13?$0.23Jul 13, 03:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 14?$0.62Jul 13, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 14?$1.24Jul 12, 20:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 68 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
68 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 16:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 06:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 68 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.