Velvety-Logo
0xbae1798162d8e1bbe39862d0fe2656e4a7cebe54
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
140
Open notional
$1.04
Total PnL
$-502.76
Realised
$-20.06
Win rate
45%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 140- YES
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next?
9 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.03
$0.02
- YES
Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next?
9 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will Maxx Crosby play for Miami Dolphins next?
9 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the Central Division?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Stuttgart win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Drew Allar be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
1971 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.82Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.23May 31, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.22May 30, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.73May 29, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$11.63May 28, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.33May 27, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.02May 26, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.38May 25, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.77May 24, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.02May 22, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.21May 21, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.09May 20, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.12May 10, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.20May 9, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.76May 7, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.39May 6, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.25May 3, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.65May 2, 00:35 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57Apr 27, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.17Apr 26, 00:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
31 closed markets, 45% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $6.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 4, 14:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.