Brilliant-Cribbage
0xbb047ab31aadabffa0d29863c16c1daa428648cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-164.78
Win rate
20%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 6?
1671 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-25.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 6?
1031 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-26.80
- YES
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on July 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 7?
952 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-24.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 2?
555 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?
542 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-11.76
- NO
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?
508 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 25?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 7?
476 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-50.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 24?$3.34Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$1.79Jul 26, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$1.57Jul 26, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?$0.03Jul 26, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$5.24Jul 25, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 25?$5.06Jul 25, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 25?$1.05Jul 25, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 25?$3.13Jul 25, 07:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?$0.11Jul 25, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 25?$1.57Jul 25, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 37°C on July 25?$1.05Jul 25, 07:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$3.93Jul 25, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?$0.15Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$3.24Jul 25, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?$0.08Jul 25, 04:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?$0.10Jul 25, 04:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?$0.76Jul 25, 04:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 25?$0.19Jul 25, 04:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$5.97Jul 25, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on July 25?$6.15Jul 25, 04:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $2.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 14:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.