Forsaken-Trolley
0xbb1af6fc4f5f5c7a96b9a5463e197544b3511e6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.08
Total PnL
$-72.86
Realised
$33.99
Win rate
70%
103 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on July 29?
48 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.05
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 29?
35 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.02
$-0.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on July 29?
34 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.02
$-0.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on June 19?
168 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-0.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9?
144 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.44
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14?
101 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15?
81 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on June 17?
77 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18?
72 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 13?
72 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.72
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$1.92Jul 29, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 29?$0.16Jul 29, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 29, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 29, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?$0.20Jul 29, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 30?$0.20Jul 29, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 29?$2.02Jul 29, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on July 29?$0.01Jul 29, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on July 29?$0.17Jul 29, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on July 29?$0.06Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$1.44Jul 29, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$1.68Jul 29, 03:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on July 30?$0.03Jul 29, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on July 29?$0.14Jul 29, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 30?$0.03Jul 29, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$0.10Jul 29, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 30?$0.36Jul 29, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 30?$1.90Jul 29, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 30?$0.96Jul 29, 03:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 103 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
103 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 103 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.