Wallet digest

active

Activity score

52/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

186

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-289.64

Realised

$2.08

Win rate

56%

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 186

YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 8?
1010 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026
$0.00
$-1.91
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
133 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 10?
108 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-0.37
YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 9?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 9?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.45Jul 11, 14:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$1.02Jul 11, 14:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.05Jul 11, 14:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$2.22Jul 11, 14:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$1.04Jul 11, 14:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.00Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.01Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$2.10Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.06Jul 11, 14:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.04Jul 11, 14:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$0.56Jul 11, 14:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1.04Jul 11, 14:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$0.48Jul 11, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.04Jul 11, 13:55 UTC
TRADESELLT20 Blast: Lancashire vs Durham$2.14Jul 11, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYT20 Blast: Lancashire vs Durham$2.36Jul 11, 13:37 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Jun 21, 16:01 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$3.02Jun 21, 16:01 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

45/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

56% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 28
Avg trade size: $1.59
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 21, 14:34 UTC
Last active: Jul 11, 14:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:54:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data