Peaceful-Inflation
0xbb4614a9c446a7d732f4fd94fbe9c7e3cf5b9773
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$84.81
Total PnL
$-325.75
Realised
$-2.93
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?
68 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$66.27
$0.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 5?
17 shares @ 97.7¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$16.54
$-0.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?
1 shares @ 97.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.00
$0.02
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 4?
1 shares @ 91.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$1.00
$0.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 30?
79 shares @ 98.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-77.46
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12?
62 shares @ 94.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-58.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28?
39 shares @ 80.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-31.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12?
34 shares @ 86.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-29.54
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25?
25 shares @ 90.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-22.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 20?
20 shares @ 95.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 5?$16.63Jul 5, 02:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 5?$15.98Jul 5, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 5?$15.78Jul 5, 00:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 4?$1.00Jul 4, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?$32.96Jul 4, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?$8.72Jul 4, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on July 5?$24.26Jul 4, 23:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 4?$1.00Jul 4, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 4?$2.00Jul 4, 22:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$4.94Jul 4, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$1.05Jul 4, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$29.97Jul 4, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$8.00Jul 4, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?$1.00Jul 4, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 4?$33.97Jul 4, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 4?$2.75Jul 4, 19:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 4?$1.00Jul 4, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 4?$2.00Jul 4, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$2.93Jul 4, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 4?$24.41Jul 4, 15:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $12.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 03:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 02:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.