Wallet digest

active

Activity score

43/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.6K

Realised

$-515.17

Win rate

32%

47 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
666 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
569 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-113.08
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
546 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-18.61
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
465 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-9.29
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET
458 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-23.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
337 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-94.82
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
305 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-13.72
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET
301 shares @ 33.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
300 shares @ 96.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-289.23
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET
291 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.05Jul 18, 04:21 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.05Jul 18, 04:20 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.24Jul 18, 04:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.02Jul 18, 04:19 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.99Jul 18, 04:19 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$2.01Jul 18, 04:18 UTC
TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - July 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$0.16Jul 18, 04:14 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$1.06Jul 18, 04:13 UTC
TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$1.25Jul 18, 04:13 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$1.05Jul 18, 04:12 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$2.00Jul 18, 04:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$1.03Jul 18, 04:09 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.10Jul 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.73Jul 16, 00:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$2.02Jul 14, 16:19 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.92Jul 14, 16:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.53Jul 14, 16:13 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.29Jul 14, 16:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.04Jul 14, 16:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$3.49Jul 14, 16:05 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

32% win rate over 47 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

47 closed markets, 32% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity60 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry40 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk23 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $1.67
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 14, 14:49 UTC
Last active: Jul 18, 04:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 47 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:01:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data