Fake-Casket
0xbb58f0a6029e71d072237726740b3f4f912501ca
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$5.27
Total PnL
$-4.46
Realised
$-0.08
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on August 6?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 3-9?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song this week?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$1.08
$0.00
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 Week of August 3 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$1.01
$0.00
- NO
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-0.64
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on January 15?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
- YES
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
- YES
Will Team Spirit win the M7 World Championship?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
- YES
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 7?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song this week?$6.51Aug 5, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song this week?$7.60Aug 5, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 7?$1.00Aug 5, 04:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 3-9?$8.88Aug 5, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 3-9?$10.00Aug 5, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on August 6?$10.01Aug 5, 04:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on August 6?$11.10Aug 5, 04:50 UTC
- TRADESELLBank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?$10.98Aug 5, 04:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?$12.00Aug 5, 04:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 Week of August 3 2026?$6.98Aug 5, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 Week of August 3 2026?$8.00Aug 5, 04:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 43°C or higher on June 26?$1.01Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C or higher on June 26?$1.04Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25?$1.06Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Benjamin Netanyahu enter Iran by June 30?$1.08Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?$1.10Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?$1.11Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4?$1.25Jul 4, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?$5.48Jun 25, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June?$6.60Jun 25, 07:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $7.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 04:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.