Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.7K

Realised

$-515.27

Win rate

55 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET
50 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-25.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
45 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-22.95
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
45 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-23.85
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
45 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-24.75
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
45 shares @ 50.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-22.79
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET
45 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-23.39
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET
40 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
40 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-19.60
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
40 shares @ 52.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-20.95
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
40 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-20.40

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$3.05Jul 30, 12:15 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$2.50Jul 30, 12:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$5.00Jul 30, 12:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$2.90Jul 30, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.65Jul 30, 11:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.00Jul 30, 11:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$2.35Jul 30, 11:45 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$2.40Jul 30, 11:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$2.20Jul 30, 11:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$2.40Jul 30, 11:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$1.48Jul 30, 11:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$0.62Jul 30, 11:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

68/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 55 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

55 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity68 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry95 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 32
Avg trade size: $2.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 30, 09:51 UTC
Last active: Jul 30, 12:19 UTC
Win rate sample: 55 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:32:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data