Reliable-Strap
0xbb834a592020c65a597202f127040befd574839c
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-30.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash rate after the February Meeting?
1725 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.83
- YES
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
428 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
133 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?
60 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Conservative Party of Japan win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be between 40 and 50?
47 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 4 be 70 or more?
44 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 6?
34 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.00Mar 7, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.00Mar 7, 14:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.05Feb 19, 05:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.50Feb 19, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?$0.51Feb 6, 08:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Terrible" or "Horrible" during the announcement on Thursday?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during remarks on January 28?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Stock Market" during remarks on January 28?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 29?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "SEP" 4+ times during January press conference?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement on Thursday?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on February 1?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on February 1?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill GE Vernova say "Data Center" during earnings call?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 30?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on January 30?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Martin Luther King" in January?$0.00Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $1.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 3, 06:59 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 7, 14:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.