Wallet digest

active

Activity score

51/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

110

Open notional

$135.20

Total PnL

$-170.69

Realised

$-3.17

Win rate

62 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 110

SLOANE STEPHENS
Cincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus
39 shares @ 83.8¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026
$34.02
$1.46
MEIA NOITE
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #2 Playoffs
15 shares @ 49.4¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$6.66
$-0.57
OVER
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5
9 shares @ 61.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$4.93
$-0.39
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves
8 shares @ 58.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026
$4.77
$0.27
MEIA NOITE
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE - Map 2 Winner
6 shares @ 73.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$4.64
$0.27
NO
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026
$4.34
$0.02
INDIANA FEVER
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)
9 shares @ 54.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$4.13
$-0.61
UNDER
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
8 shares @ 43.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026
$3.88
$0.64
NO
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$3.62
$0.06
EVA LYS
Cincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys
6 shares @ 67.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$3.60
$-0.60

Recent activity

TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$1.06Aug 15, 00:55 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$1.31Aug 15, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$1.31Aug 15, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys$2.13Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys$2.13Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$2.42Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$2.42Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sloane Stephens vs Sinja Kraus$2.42Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)$1.49Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)$1.43Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
REDEEMMiami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds$1.98Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
REDEEMMiami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5$1.72Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys$1.17Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)$1.62Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)$1.59Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)$1.62Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)$1.62Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYSeattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5$2.25Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys$1.35Aug 15, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - CCT South America Challengers #2 Playoffs$1.65Aug 15, 00:52 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 62 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

62 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity70 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $2.59
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 14, 23:32 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 00:55 UTC
Win rate sample: 62 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 00:57:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data