Grown-Downturn
0xbbedfb8e41a674c546491b1b8843518f6a9a9090
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
199
Open notional
$35.94
Total PnL
$-342.29
Realised
$39.03
Win rate
100%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 199- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 25?
53 shares @ 12.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$7.13
$0.79
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 26?
41 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$5.89
$-0.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 28?
53 shares @ 8.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$4.26
$0.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 26?
162 shares @ 6.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.84
$-7.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 24?
27 shares @ 8.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$2.78
$0.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?
5 shares @ 13.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.07
$1.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 24?
47 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.87
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 23?
51 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.75
$-0.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 24?
19 shares @ 14.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$1.55
$-1.17
- NO
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
60 shares @ 9.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.34
$-4.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on July 28?$4.53Jul 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 26?$6.46Jul 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 25?$6.73Jul 22, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 24?$6.26Jul 22, 18:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22?$24.09Jul 22, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 108-109°F on July 22?$0.81Jul 22, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 23?$3.05Jul 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 30°C on July 24?$2.22Jul 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 24?$2.84Jul 22, 16:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on July 24?$0.99Jul 22, 14:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22?$3.97Jul 22, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?$0.40Jul 22, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 22?$1.75Jul 22, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?$1.00Jul 22, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 23?$0.91Jul 22, 10:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on July 22?$2.95Jul 22, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 24?$3.42Jul 22, 07:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 23?$1.56Jul 22, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 24?$1.04Jul 22, 07:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 15:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 19:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.