Cautious-Nightgown
0xbc1d6d5dac059f5472d84f185df5ee7b00d9c510
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$2.48
Total PnL
$-60.55
Realised
$-2.92
Win rate
7%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- CUENIN
Set Handicap: Broska (-1.5) vs Cuenin (+1.5)
1 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$1.43
$0.37
- MILIC
Set Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Milic (+1.5)
2 shares @ 71.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$1.04
$-0.05
- YES
Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
34 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.03
- OVER
Altmaier vs. Molcan: Match O/U 23.5
10 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.88
- YES
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
9 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- OVER
Safiullin vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 40.5
8 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.59
- OVER 2.5
Jan Choinski vs. Jamie Mackenzie: Total Sets O/U 2.5
7 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.30
- PASSARO
Set Handicap: Passaro (-1.5) vs Krumich (+1.5)
7 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- RIBEIRO
Set Handicap: Ribeiro (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)
6 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.38
- UNDER
Rublev vs. Darderi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Broska (-1.5) vs Cuenin (+1.5)$1.07Aug 18, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5$6.98Aug 18, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Ratti (-1.5) vs Milic (+1.5)$1.11Aug 17, 08:00 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Trungelliti (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)$1.11Aug 16, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Trungelliti (-1.5) vs Medvedev (+1.5)$1.01Aug 16, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)$0.47Aug 15, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)$0.45Aug 15, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)$0.46Aug 15, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Landaluce (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5)$0.47Aug 15, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMValentin Royer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5$1.60Aug 14, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYValentin Royer vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 2.5$1.06Aug 14, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Vandecasteele (-1.5) vs Shelbayh (+1.5)$1.30Aug 13, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Ribeiro (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)$1.04Aug 12, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Ribeiro (-1.5) vs McDonald (+1.5)$0.34Aug 12, 07:12 UTC
- REDEEM1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)$1.45Aug 12, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUY1st 5 Innings Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)$1.07Aug 11, 14:47 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Cretu (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)$1.51Aug 10, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Cretu (-1.5) vs Moeller (+1.5)$1.08Aug 10, 08:21 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Nesterov (+1.5)$5.98Aug 9, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Piraino (-1.5) vs Nesterov (+1.5)$0.31Aug 9, 10:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $0.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 16:26 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 06:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.