Adventurous-Vagrant
0xbc204249aef40e2b0f52ea2fada4019f800e06f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-125.88
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Iran strike eight countries in March?
2705 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
516 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-6.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
198 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-25.31
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025?
172 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-22.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
156 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.92
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
81 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-0.89
- YES
Will Trump say "Border" 30 or more times during Georgia rally on October 23?
50 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
37 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-17.55
- NO
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
26 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-8.37
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?$8.03Jun 15, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?$37.24Jun 15, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30?$38.50Jun 2, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$18.23Apr 5, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$1.00Apr 5, 23:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$19.29Apr 5, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$13.15Apr 5, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.00Apr 5, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.00Apr 5, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET$2.00Apr 5, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$19.16Apr 5, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET$10.89Apr 5, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$11.34Apr 5, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?$9.47Apr 5, 08:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?$9.95Apr 5, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?$2.25Apr 5, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$2.25Apr 5, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$7.12Apr 5, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$0.88Apr 5, 01:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$37.04Apr 5, 01:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $16.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 4, 04:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 15, 21:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.