Misguided-Overload
0xbc538989cf831daefb72b6971de7c1ac0194d6d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-609.13
Realised
$17.86
Win rate
70%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
625 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
316 shares @ 7.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
152 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?$1.02Jun 17, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Panama win on 2026-06-17?$1.02Jun 17, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$2.17Jun 17, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$2.01Jun 17, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$3.08Jun 16, 21:20 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.00Jun 16, 18:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$3.57Jun 16, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$3.03Jun 16, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.50Jun 16, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.03Jun 16, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?$5.12Jun 16, 17:39 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.19Jun 16, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET$3.11Jun 16, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$1.60Jun 16, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET$1.06Jun 16, 17:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.01Jun 16, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.62Jun 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$3.06Jun 16, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$3.06Jun 5, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$2.80Jun 5, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 16:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 22:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.