0xbc5dfd93f08ad1fd4dac599580a2df4125b84536
0xbc5dfd93f08ad1fd4dac599580a2df4125b84536
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-750.31
Realised
$-27.00
Win rate
1%
103 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
221 shares @ 45.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
196 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
137 shares @ 14.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
104 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13?
88 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET
87 shares @ 46.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 2AM ET
78 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 13?
66 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?
61 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?$1.03Jun 17, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?$1.03Jun 17, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?$1.04Jun 17, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?$1.04Jun 17, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?$10.33Jun 14, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)$5.11Jun 14, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?$18.35Jun 13, 13:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13?$2.09Jun 12, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13?$1.05Jun 12, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13?$5.29Jun 12, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13?$3.20Jun 12, 22:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$53.51Jun 12, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day?$10.27Jun 12, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?$20.85Jun 12, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?$0.56Jun 12, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?$10.33Jun 12, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?$12.37Jun 12, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$15.32Jun 12, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$43.27Jun 11, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?$20.19Jun 11, 18:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 103 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
103 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $10.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 23:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 17:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 103 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.